Locke on Stocks

Small Biotech $AVII to Trade Actively Monday on Barron's Spec

2009-10-04T20:49:00.002-04:00

The herd has been summoned.
At $1.56, expect this puppy to surge early on heavy volume.

Boomer Consumer - WSJ

2009-10-04T20:45:00.000-04:00

Pearl Jam - The Fixer

2009-07-22T14:30:00.001-04:00

New 3X Leveraged ETFs for Daily S&P 500 Trades

2009-06-29T18:45:00.002-04:00

ProShares introduced 3X leveraged ETFs today for daily swings in the S&P 500. UPRO is the bullish play, SPXU the bearish. Volumes were light today, but are sure to pick up as word spreads. Use intraday with caution, or just short either one of them and hang on for months. Permalinks in the sidebar.

Even in the best of times, the 401(k) wasn't perfect.

2009-06-21T09:14:00.003-04:00

Fortune Magazine examines 401(k) alternatives.

The Hijacking of Retirement in America: the 401k Flim-Flam: 60 Minutes

2009-04-20T23:56:00.003-04:00

More 3X Leveraged ETFs from Direxion

2009-04-16T21:51:00.002-04:00

Two BULL and two BEAR 3X funds from Direxion for U.S. Treasuries, 10-year and 30-year. Links for the 30-year have been added under 3X ETFs on the sidebar. Unless you're a frenetic day-trader, don't go long either of them. In fact, you could short either one and win in time, due to churn decay. But the no-brainer is shorting the BULL (TMF) as the safety trade unwinds.

Gomez: See The World @ 9:30 Club;Washington, DC March 29, 2009

2009-04-01T07:36:00.001-04:00

You Can Follow LOS on Twitter

2009-02-09T18:35:00.002-05:00

Updates are sporadic at best. I would highly encourage any day-traders to take advantage of StockTwits, a great forum for floating ideas in real time.

Stimulis: Economic Performance Enhancement

2009-02-08T18:15:00.005-05:00

Shoutout to stevenplace for the find.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Sticks Over 5%

2009-01-26T06:38:00.004-05:00

After flirting with a 4-handle two weeks ago, spurring a spate of refinancing, average national rates have popped back up to 5.42%. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, refis account for over 80% of all new mortgage applications.

Ruble at Lowest Level Since '98 Crisis

2009-01-19T07:42:00.005-05:00

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble fell below the weakest level seen in the 1998 Russian crisis after the central bank devalued for the sixth time in seven days to protect reserves.

The currency slid to as little as 33.0455 per dollar today, the lowest since early 1998, before the government defaulted on $40 billion of debt. The ruble has lost 7.3 percent since official trading resumed this year, extending the decline to 29 percent since August.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pledged last month to use the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves to avoid “sharp” currency swings, after the 71 percent decline against the dollar in 1998 caused investors to flee and savers to pull bank deposits. Investors have withdrawn $245 billion from Russia since August as a 69 percent drop in oil, Russia’s war with Georgia and the disruption to gas exports exacerbated the effect of the global financial crisis, according to BNP Paribas SA data.

“Fear of another devaluation means nobody wants to buy rubles right now,” said Lars Rasmussen, an emerging markets analyst in Copenhagen at Danske Bank A/S, which rates itself among the five biggest traders of ruble in the world through Finnish subsidiary Samo Bank Plc. “The ruble has begun to look more and more overvalued because of the fall in the oil price.”

Russia’s reserves, the world’s third-largest, have dropped by $171.6 billion to $426.5 billion since August, as policy makers sold currency. The ruble weakened 1.4 percent to 37.8179 against the basket by 1:29 p.m. in Moscow, extending this year’s drop to 6.8 percent.

3-month rubles/$

"We Are One" Concert

2009-01-18T23:05:00.003-05:00

Photo credit: Natasha Perreault

Obama Condoms. Because Hope Is Not a Form of Protection.

2009-01-18T22:55:00.003-05:00

Photo credit: Natasha Perreault

Inauguration Prep

2009-01-17T06:48:00.000-05:00

Photo credit: Natasha Perreault

Escape From It All

2009-01-11T23:08:00.003-05:00

Shoutout to Charles Amadeus for sharing this find.

Direxion Introduces More Triple-Leveraged (3X) Index ETFs

2008-12-28T21:45:00.008-05:00

DirexionShares has already expanded its nascent stable of 3X ETF stallions. The initial crop of triple-levered trading vehicles tied to indices of financials, energy, and large and small cap stocks, have proven to be widely popular, as evidenced by daily trading volumes in the millions. For junkies who need a fix that plain old 200% leverage just can't cure, the doctor now has a larger cabinet of 300% smack. Traders can now get 3X returns bull or bear in technology (TYH, TYP), emerging markets (EDC, EDZ), and developed markets (DZK, DPK). We have seen the future of leveraged ETFs, and it was foreshadowed by the Mach3 razor.

One thing to keep in mind with these ETFs is that they only ATTEMPT to replicate 300% of the move of the underlying index, and through complicated means. The higher the leverage goal, the more the tracking error gets magnified.

ETF vs. ETN: Choosing the Right Leveraged Play on Gold and Oil

2008-12-28T21:04:00.004-05:00

There was an excellent article by Ron DeLegge of ETFguide.com a few weeks ago about the pros and cons of ETFs vs. ETNs. The comparison is topical because if you want to make a leveraged play on gold or crude oil, you now have a choice between Powershares ETNs and ProShares ETFs. Until a few weeks ago, the ETNs were the only way to go. For most, ETFs are the better option because they don't have the credit default risks of ETNs. Manic traders might prefer the increased liquidity and comparable tax advantage (for now) of ETNs. Some of the new ETFs still have very low trading volumes.

The new commodity ETFs linked in the sidebar are the 2X UltraLONG UCO (oil), UGL (gold), and AGQ (silver), and the 2X UltraSHORT SCO (oil), GLL (gold), and ZSL (silver). Keep liquidity in mind.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ETNs or ETFs?

Up until the ProShares launch, exchange-traded notes (ETNs) were the only way to obtain leveraged and short exposure to commodities. (Of course, without shorting or leveraging them yourself via a futures brokerage account.) The 19 commodities-focused PowerShares/Deutsche Bank ETNs were really the only game in town, but not anymore.

Instead of using the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO), now investors can use the ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil (UCO). Both investment products have the same investment strategy of trying to double the daily upside performance of crude's move by 200%. However, UCO does not carry any credit default risk like DXO.

The annual fees on the PowerShares/Deutsche Bank ETNs are a lower 0.75% versus the 0.95% for the ProShares leveraged/short commodity ETFs, but don't overlook the other important details.

For an additional 0.20% in annual costs, the ProShares ETFs do not carry any issuer credit risk. The fall of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent collapse of the company's three ETN products was a nasty real-life lesson about the danger of credit default risk. Clearly, all of the other benefits of ETNs like their lack of tracking error and their favorable tax treatment (which is being reviewed by the IRS and could end at any moment) are completely undermined by ETN credit risk. What good are all of these benefits, with the chronic threat of corporate failure? For that reason, we have consistently warned our readers about the danger of ETNs.

The Obscure Product Structures behind Commodity ETFs

Most commodities focused ETFs follow a grantor trust or partnership product structure and are not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 like most equity and bond funds. Instead, many are registered under the Securities Act of 1933.

One such example is the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). With almost $20 billion in assets, GLD is the most popular single commodity ETF. GLD follows a grantor trust product structure and its share price is hinged to one-tenth the ounce price of gold bullion. Also, GLD does not use gold commodity futures, but holds physical gold bars in a secured vault.

Since many commodities ETFs don't own the physical commodities, but instead futures or options on them, their tax treatment is quite different compared to a stock or bond ETF. Gains and losses in commodity ETFs that use futures contracts are taxed as 60% long-term and 40% short-term. This creates a blended tax rate ceiling of 23% for investors in the highest tax bracket.

As we've mentioned before, the ideal place for commodity ETFs is inside a tax sheltered account like an IRA, ROTH IRA, or 401(k) plan. Simply put, they aren't very tax efficient held elsewhere.

Merry Christmas!

2008-12-25T11:04:00.000-05:00

Ruble Getting Whacked on Dollar Bounce, Crude Weakness

2008-12-19T09:26:00.002-05:00

The inexorable decline in oil prices continues to pressure Russia's foreign currency reserves in defense of the ruble. Check the chart in the "Russia Watch" sidebar -->

Nymex 3-2-1 Crack Spreads Widen

2008-12-18T07:49:00.004-05:00

Crude oil has fallen much more than RBOB gasoline and heating oil this week. Refiners had a decent day yesterday as VLO announced further production cuts. Little guys like WNR, TSO, HOC, and ALJ will benefit, not only from less distillates being cracked, but also from the lower borrowing costs associated with cheaper crude, which was killing them on the rise up over $100, despite gasoline reaching record levels.

Obama to Nominate Schapiro for SEC Head; Cox to Be Flayed

2008-12-17T21:15:00.005-05:00

FINRA chief Mary Schapiro will get the nod from President-elect Obama for Chairwoman of the SEC. Outgoing Chairman Christopher Cox was already getting chafed for changing the uptick rule, being soft on naked shorting, and basically lubricating the bear market, but the recent Madoff scandal highlights just how limp the regulatory sinews have become.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Falls to 5.76%

2008-11-29T16:09:00.003-05:00

30-year fixed mortgage rate (left) vs. 3-month T-bill (right) over 4 years.

Source: Bankrate.com

Turkeys Away: WKRP Classic

2008-11-27T10:01:00.001-05:00

Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Indices

2008-11-27T08:51:00.010-05:00

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City

Composite Home Price Indices. The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index –

which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – remained in double digits, posting a record 16.6% decline

in the third quarter of 2008 versus the third quarter of 2007. This has increased from the annual declines

of 15.1% and 14.0%, reported for the 2nd and 1st quarters of the year, respectively. The 10-City and 20-

City Composites continue to set new records, with annual declines of 18.6% and 17.4%, respectively.

“The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already

weakened by its own fundamentals.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at

Standard & Poor’s. “All three aggregate indices and 13 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new recordrates

of decline. Looking at the returns of the U.S. National Index, prices are back to where they were in early 2004.

As of September 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 23.4% from its peak, the 20-City Composite is down

21.8% and the National Composite is down 21.0%.”

Phoenix was the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 31.9%, followed by Las Vegas, down

31.3%, and San Francisco at -29.5%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego did not fair much better with

annual declines of 28.4%, 27.6% and 26.3%, respectively.

Dallas and Charlotte faired the best in September in terms of relative year-over-year returns. While also

in negative territory, their declines remained in single digits of -2.7% and -3.5%, respectively. However,

both are at rates of decline lower than those reported in August’s numbers. In addition, Charlotte also

reported its largest monthly decline on record, down 1.3%. Monthly returns were negative across the

board. Cleveland was the one market that showed any improvement in its year-over-year returns

reporting -6.4% compared to the -6.6% reported for August.

The table below summarizes the results for September 2008.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am

ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each

metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses

from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price

Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of

single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original

metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted

average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus,

forexample, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a

typical home located within the subject market.

Source: S&P and Fiserv

Automakers Rev Up PR Campaign for Bailout

2008-11-19T05:04:00.005-05:00

The Big 3 made their case for a federal bridge loan to the Senate yesterday, and hope to get a warmer reception from the House today. In an effort to boost their chance of success, a full-court press is underway in the court of public opinion.

Onion: Should the Government Stop Dumping Money into a Giant Hole?

2008-11-13T07:42:00.001-05:00

Spoof News: Harvard Will Shut Business School Doors

2008-11-13T07:13:00.003-05:00

By JOHN LEVERETT

Published: July 4th, 2009

Harvard University Business School will be closing its doors following an unprecedented drop-off in applications this fall. The school will be renamed the Harvard University School of Integrity, and students will receive Masters in Integrity and Compassion, or M.I.C.s.

“We believe that the recent increase in visibility of progressive movements and ideals, coupled with the demotion of free-market capitalism as a viable belief system, has led students away from training in accumulation for its own sake and into fields where they can advance peace and justice,” said Harvard spokesperson Susan Morrison.

It became apparent in early 2009 that enrollment in fields like marketing, advertising, corporate communications, and management dropped 44 percent, while enrollments in fields like social work, journalism, and community organizing were up 53 percent in the same period.
“We’re not sure if it’s an anomaly or an indicator of a long term trend, but there’s definitely a change,” said Morrison.

Morrison said the new Integrity School is contacting campuses around the world to encourage graduating seniors to apply. “We see as our job to help students tap into their desire for integrity and compassion, rather than their greed. That’s what they need, and that’s what our society needs.”

Source: Fake NY Times

Keeping an Eye on the Russian Economy

2008-11-12T21:10:00.019-05:00

The RTS index of Russian stocks is down 22% in two days as oil in free fall pressures the rouble and strains the government's foreign currency reserves. The situation is eerily reminiscent of 1998 when falling oil prices contributed to a financial meltdown and the re-valuation of the rouble. The Russian people only recently began to trust banks again, thanks to oil-driven boom times and the adoption of consumer credit. Another collapse on the scale of 1998 could have devastating repercussions to the teen-aged Russian experiment in capitalism.

Oil:

5-Year Rouble/Dollar:

U.S. Unemployment Rate Since 1998

2008-11-12T20:56:00.003-05:00

I can't explain my renewed interest in Excel, it's like I'm back in college, just roll with it.

Natural Gas Weekly Storage 5-Year Chart

2008-11-09T19:13:00.009-05:00

At 3,405 Bcf on Oct. 31, stocks were 130 Bcf below 2007 levels, and 78 Bcf above the 5-year avg. of 3,327 Bcf.

How about another request for more 2X levered ETFs?

Nat gas would be hugely popular.

UNG 1-year chart:

China gets fiscal: $586 billion stimulus

2008-11-09T16:05:00.003-05:00

Concerned that economic growth could slow to a rate below 9% (the horror), China's plan dwarfs the initial $168 billion U.S. stimulus package of tax rebates.
The FXI was up 12.8% on Friday, which is set up to mimic just a direct 1:1 relationship with the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index. The FXP, the double inverse of the FXI, was down 25.6% (spot on management). One would expect the FXI to gap higher on Monday. Too bad there's not a 2X long China ETF, or emerging markets. You could short the FXP or EEV. UYM, 2X basic materials, could work. But opening gaps often fade throughout the trading day.

Visualize economic cyclicality

2008-10-27T22:22:00.007-04:00

A chart on Brian Shannon's excellent Alphatrends blog of technical analysis ("Successful Speculation Begins With Objective Observation") struck me as familiar this afternoon.
The S&P 500 during the last two bear markets looks like the Fed Funds rate.

You can easily imagine how unprecedented and ongoing efforts to pump liquidity into the system could already be setting the stage for the next leg up (or "bubble").

Futures falter on Asian weakness

2008-10-27T04:10:00.008-04:00

U.S. index futures are again flirting with limit down moves early this morning as overseas markets are reeling. The Hang Seng lost over 12%, and the Nikkei marked its lowest close in 26 years. The Japanese yen has surged 10% against the dollar in just a week, rising to a nearly 13-year high of 92 yen to the dollar, rendering the exporting nation's products more expensive. The yen's strength has been even more dramatic against the euro. On October 14, a euro would buy 139 yen. Two weeks later the same euro will get you 115 yen. The dollar continues to strengthen against the euro, now trading at $1.24 each.

Yen Index.

Nikkei.

Correlation Tool: new link

2008-10-27T04:02:00.003-04:00

Great tool for finding analogs and opposites, just enter symbol.

Wordle

2008-10-26T19:57:00.003-04:00

Solar tax credits jeopardized by financial crisis, end of congressional session

2008-10-01T07:45:00.010-04:00

While both houses of Congress agree that tax credits for renewable energy industries should be extended, the Senate and House versions of the tax bill differ in how to pay for the plan. Unless the impasse can be breached this week, the measure is likely to wilt on the vine. Congress is already busy working overtime on relieving the financial system. Without tax subsidies, solar energy can't compete on price against traditional sources.

"The AP report notes that lawmakers on both sides of the Capitol 'stressed that the tax relief bill would create tens of thousands of jobs and contribute to the nation's energy independence. House Democrats 'insisted that more of the package, totaling $138 billion in House bills, be paid for so as not to increase the deficit. Senate Republicans, averse to new taxes, said any changes in the Senate-passed tax bill would kill the entire package.'"

"'It would take us in exactly the wrong direction as a country, especially with respect to climate change,' said Peter Darbee, chief executive officer of Pacific Gas and Electric Co. The utility has signed contracts with several developers of major solar power plants and has repeatedly warned that some of the projects will fall through without the tax credits. The company is counting on those projects to meet a looming state deadline to increase its use of renewable power."

Selected solar stocks since Tuesday's U.S. Senate vote approving the extension of solar tax credits for another eight years.

3 month T Bill 5-day chart

2008-09-30T20:22:00.000-04:00

Dow posts third largest point gain in history

2008-09-30T16:11:00.002-04:00

Greatest DJIA Daily Point Gains
of All-Time
Rank	Date	Close	Net Chg	% Chg
1	3/16/00	10,630.60	+499.19	+4.93
2	7/24/02	8,191.29	+488.95	+6.35
3	9/30/08	10,850.66	+485.21	+4.68
4	7/29/02	8,711.88	+447.49	+5.41
5	3/18/08	12,392.66	+420.41	+3.51
6	3/11/08	12,156.81	+416.66	+3.55
7	9/18/08	11,019.69	+410.03	+3.86
8	4/5/01	9,918.05	+402.63	+4.23
9	4/18/01	10,615.83	+399.10	+3.91
10	4/1/08	12,654.36	+391.47	+3.19
11	9/8/98	8,020.78	+380.53	+4.98
12	10/15/02	8,255.68	+378.28	+4.80
13	9/19/08	11,388.44	+368.75	+3.35
14	9/24/01	8,603.86	+368.05	+4.47
15	10/1/02	7,938.79	+346.86	+4.57
16	5/16/01	11,215.92	+342.95	+3.15
17	12/5/00	10,898.72	+338.62	+3.21
18	10/28/97	7,498.32	+337.17	+4.71
19	9/18/07	13,739.39	+335.97	+2.51
20	8/5/08	11,615.77	+331.62	+2.94
21	11/28/07	13,289.45	+331.01	+2.55
22	10/15/98	8,299.36	+330.58	+4.15
23	7/5/02	9,379.50	+324.53	+3.58

Biggest one-day Dow point drop in history

2008-09-29T21:08:00.001-04:00

Greatest DJIA Daily Point Losses
of All-Time
Rank	Date	Close	Net Chg	% Chg
1	9/29/08	10,365.45	-777.68	-6.98
2	9/17/01	8,920.70	–684.81	–7.13
3	4/14/00	10,305.78	–617.77	–5.66
4	10/27/97	7,161.14	–554.26	–7.18
5	8/31/98	7,539.06	–512.62	–6.37
6	10/19/87	1,738.74	–508.00	–22.61
7	9/15/08	10,917.51	-504.48	-4.42
8	9/17/08	10,609.66	-449.36	-4.06
9	3/12/01	10,208.25	–436.37	–4.10
10	2/27/07	12,216.24	–416.02	–3.29
11	6/6/08	12,209.81	–394.64	–3.13
12	7/19/02	8,019.26	–390.23	–4.64
13	8/9/07	13,270.68	–387.18	–2.83
14	9/20/01	8,376.21	–382.92	–4.37
15	10/12/00	10,034.58	–379.21	–3.64
16	3/7/00	9,796.04	–374.47	–3.68
17	9/22/08	11,015.69	-372.75	-3.27
18	2/5/08	12,265.13	–370.03	–2.93
19	10/19/07	13,522.02	–366.94	–2.64
20	11/1/07	13,567.87	–362.14	–2.60
21	11/7/07	13,300.02	–360.92	–2.64
22	1/4/00	10,997.94	–359.57	–3.17
23	6/26/08	11,453.42	–358.41	–3.03
24	8/27/98	8,165.99	–357.36	–4.19

Traders eye the VIX

2008-09-17T22:37:00.006-04:00

Traders hoping for a bounce in the markets are looking for solace in the VIX volatility index. The so-called "fear index" closed over 36 today, its highest level since 2002. Prior spikes above 30 this year have indicated short-term bottoms.

Charts of the VIX were the most requested among all issues on stockcharts.com Wednesday evening.

Earnings This Week

2008-05-19T07:32:00.014-04:00

Monday

ELON pm analysts (-15) cents EPS on $33.2 mil MET, guides above consensus
EXM pm analysts $1.79 EPS on $61.8 mil BEAT by 14 cents
LFT pm analysts 9 cents EPS on $12.6 mil BEAT by 3 cents
PWRD pm analysts 35 cents EPS on $39.4 mil BEAT by 3 cents

CNTF ah analysts 8 cents on $48.7 mil
DRYS ah analysts $4.05 on $218.6 mil
GRRF ah analysts (-25) cents EPS on $8.4 mil
LORL ah priced below NTA no estimates
NCTY ah analysts 32 cents EPS on $58.1 mil

Tuesday

CSUN pm analysts (-5) cents EPS on $73.3 mil
MBT pm analysts $1.63 on 2.34 bil
MF pm analysts (-20) cents on $1.41 bil
UNFI pm analysts 29 cents on $879.2 mil

HPQ ah analysts 85 cents on $28.1 bil
VRTU ah analysts 19 cents on $45 mil

Wednesday

BJ pm analysts 28 cents on $2.27 bil
SOLF pm analysts $1.12 on $961.8 mil

CHINA ah analysts (-1) cent EPS on $97.7 mil
CTRN ah analysts 34 cents on $120.9 mil
HOTT ah analysts (-4) cents on $159.3 mil priced at NTA
NTES ah analysts 31 cents on $82.3 mil
QXM ah no analysts

Thursday

BCSI pm analysts 40 cents on $89.5 mil
FRO pm analysts $2.35 on $392.5 mil
GSOL pm analysts 11 cents on $39.9 mil
OPXT pm analysts 6 cents on $68.8 mil
STP pm analysts 27 cents on $376.1 mil

HRAY ah analysts (-3) cents on $14 mil

The Week Ahead: Earnings of Note

2008-05-11T23:00:00.009-04:00

Monday

Premarket
ANSW Internet search portal,
AEY Cable equipment distributor,
CCGY.ob Chinese chemicals/biodiesel,
CHME.ob Chinese pharmaceuticals,
HOC Oil refiner, reports 17 cents vs. 15 cents consensus on $1.48 billion vs. $1.35 billion estimates
HWCC Specialty wire distributor,
IPSU Sugar processor coming off fatal refinery explosion,
JASO Chinese solar, reports 14 cents vs. 10 cents consensus on $160 million vs. $146.6 mil estimates, reiterates revenue guidance above estimates
MBI Frail bond insurer,
MED Weight loss centers, reports 10 cents vs. 11 cents consensus on $25.2 million vs. $22.05 mil estimates, guides 2008 net income above consensus
PETS Online pet meds,
VSR Multi-function contractor

After Hours
BWTR
CBAK
DXPE
FLR
LDK
MDR pre-warned
PAL
WNR
XFML

Tuesday

Premarket
CSIQ
CFSG
GIGM
GLUU
GU
HOKU
KEM
NTWK
PTG
TGIC
TRT ?
XNN

After Hours
AMAT
GIGA
ICOP
ENPT ?

Wednesday

DE premarket
DSX premarket
ELOS premarket
FRE premarket
HAUP ? premarket

ENTN after hours
ETEL after hours
SINA after hours
STV after hours
TSTC after hours

Thursday

ACAT premarket
KRSL ? premarket
YGE premarket

BSIC.ob ? intraday

GA after hours
HPQ after hours
IPII after hours
KONG after hours
NINE ? after hours
SYNX ? after hours

Weekly EIA data

2008-04-30T10:29:00.001-04:00

Actual:
Oil +3.8 million barrels
Gasoline -1.5 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 85.4%

Expected:
Oil +500k barrels
Gasoline -800k barrels
Capacity utilization: 85.9%

The Week Ahead: Selected Earnings Reports

2008-04-27T23:15:00.002-04:00

Monday
BEAV premarket
HUM premarket
SOHU premarket
TGE premarket
FLS after hours
MTW after hours
TITN after hours
UCTT after hours
V after hours

Tuesday

BNI premarket
BYD premarket
GLW premarketMA premarket
MAG premarket
UA premarket
VLO premarket
ALGN after hours
BWLD after hours
KTCC after hours

Wednesday

CMI premarket
FSLR premarket
GRMN premarket
NOV premarket
AMKR after hours
DVR after hours
OII after hours
TRN after hours
Thursday

ATRO premarket
PDE premarket
PMTI premarket
PTEN premarket
RAIL premarket
BOOM after hours
CHK after hours
MNST after hours
WLT after hours

Friday

AGU premarket
ICE premarket

Cartoon Theme O' the Week: Food Prices

2008-04-26T21:20:00.015-04:00

POT crushes Q1 estimates, significantly raises 2008 guidance

2008-04-24T06:30:00.003-04:00

The company earned $1.74 per share versus consensus of $1.52.
Earnings guidance for full-year 2008 was steeply hiked up from $6.25-$7.25 per share to $9.50-$10.50 per share. Analysts currently expect $8.62 for 2008.
For the second quarter POT expects to earn $2.20-$2.50 versus $2.27 consensus.
"Another record quarter for our company reflects the ongoing growth in global demand for food and the fertilizers that are essential to maximizing crop production," said PotashCorp President and Chief Executive Officer Bill Doyle. "This is especially true of potash, where we have unmatched assets that continue to elevate our performance. In this environment, we are demonstrating the increasing value of our company - as an essential part of the solution to concerns about the world's food supply."

"The global need to increase food production is real and immediate, and it will be a part of our world for the foreseeable future," said Doyle. "It took nearly a decade to empty the global grain cupboard and we can't refill it overnight. The good news is that the world is more than capable of producing enough food, but improved farming and fertilization practices will be required. With our unique ability to incrementally raise our potash production to meet world demand over the next several years, we look forward to helping farmers increase food production as we deliver continued growth for our shareholders."

IPI pulled back yesterday following its stellar debut on Tuesday. It could be off to the races again today on both the strength of POT's earnings and the saturating media coverage of the global food crunch.

Despite recent data, gasoline stocks still 7% above last year's level

2008-04-23T20:53:00.012-04:00

Refiners have operated at highly reduced run rates the past month to try to work off supply overhang ahead of the summer driving season.

With the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack spread still struggling to hold the lower teens, industry-wide attempts to boost margins could be a case of too little too late.

Oil stocks are still below levels of a year ago. And momentum in crude futures is so overwhelming that any data point, negative or positive, within the petroleum complex can and does get spun into a bullish scenario.

So oil continues higher and refining margins stay compressed. Even though gasoline at the pump is crossing $4/gallon in some areas of the country, refiners' share of the pie is only one-third of last year's take.

Weekly EIA data: Bigger build in crude, bigger draw in gasoline

2008-04-23T10:25:00.003-04:00

Actual:
Oil +2.4 million barrels
Gasoline -3.2 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 85.6%

Expected:
Oil +1.1 million barrels
Gasoline -2.1 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 82.1%

Large-cap Chinese energy companies worth a look

2008-04-22T09:12:00.008-04:00

With shares of American energy companies like APA(nat gas), ACI(coal), and XOM(oil) hitting new 52-week highs on an almost daily basis, it's worth looking abroad for underperformers in the sector
Chinese firms PTR and SNP have come well down off their highs in conjunction with the Shanghai Composite, which at 3147 is roughly 50% off of its October highs over 6000. But they're starting to define a bottom ahead of the major index.

Shanghai made a bit of a stand last night to close in positive territory after dipping below the 3000 mark intraday(night).

SNP sports a P/E below 11, and @ $100/share is 45% below its 52-week high over $178.

The chart for PTR looks the same, as shares have retreated 48% since October.
PTR is now trading at a P/E under 12.

Much has been made about P/E ratios on the exchange, but when China's GDP growth rate is factored into calculations, the Shanghai Composite is valued equitably relative to the exchanges of other countries. This chart is from November.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) begins trading today

2008-04-22T07:04:00.006-04:00

The highly anticipated IPO priced 30 million shares yesterday @ $32, above expectations of $29. The company is the American analog to Potash (POT), the Canadian fertilizer company that never pulls back. With a $66 billion market cap, POT is now second only to RIMM ($71 billion) in size among Canadian stocks.

This IPO has all the feel of the Visa (V) IPO last month, which is up 25% since its debut. Just as Mastercard (MA) dominated the market for demand in credit card transaction firms, shares of POT and Mosaic (MOS) have benefited from a dearth of publicly traded fertilizer companies. And IPI is the purest play of the three on potash. Wannabe investors on the sidelines who have been shaking their heads every time POT hits a new high have their chance to get in on the ground floor of a similar company.

POT’s awe-inspiring chart. The recent hyperbolic move equals a gain of 45% since March 20.

An increase in supply in fertilizer issues doesn't necessarily have to decrease demand for existing stocks. MA has continued to climb higher since V started trading.

Odds are that IPI will open much higher than $32. It might be tough to stomach "paying up" for it @ $45, but how many people passed at paying $100 for POT six months ago?

Weekly EIA data: Unexpected drawdown in oil, bigger draw in gasoline

2008-04-16T10:27:00.002-04:00

Actual:
Oil -2.3 million barrels
Gasoline -5.5 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 81.4%

Expected:
Oil +1.7 million barrels
Gasoline -1.7 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 83.7%

Build your vocabulary and feed the hungry

2008-04-15T20:07:00.006-04:00

International riots over soaring food costs spurred President Bush to authorize $200 million in emergency aid today. World Bank President Robert Zoellick says rice prices have risen globally by about 75% in just the past two months, "with more likely to come."

So what's a well-nourished, cubicled American to do?

An ingenious website let's you feel like you're doing something while it helps you build your vocabulary. For every word you get right, 20 grains of rice are donated through the UN World Food Program to end world hunger. See if you can beat level 46!

Solar ETF TAN debuted today

2008-04-15T19:49:00.003-04:00

The Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol TAN, is designed to track approximately 25 companies within the following business segments of the solar power industry: equipment producers, suppliers of materials or services, installation, integration or finance, and companies that specialize in selling electricity.

McCain proposes summer gas tax holiday

2008-04-15T11:56:00.011-04:00

To help people weather the downturn immediately, McCain urged Congress to institute a "gas-tax holiday" by suspending the 18.4 cent federal gas tax and 24.4 cent diesel tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day. He also renewed his call for the United States to stop adding to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and thus lessen to some extent the worldwide demand for oil.

Wall Street Journal parody draws ire of Murdochs, real and imagined

2008-04-14T13:37:00.006-04:00

The Huffington Post says the real Rupert Murdoch isn't too pleased, having attempted to buy up all available copies.

Writers from the Daily Show, Saturday Night Live, and the Onion joined Andy Borowitz, Richard Belzer and others to create the special edition, including the ads.

Fake Murdoch lets his minions have it.

ETN, GWW beat estimates, raise forecasts

2008-04-14T08:04:00.003-04:00

ETN, manufacturer of electrical and power components, beat by 4 cents and raises 2008 guidance.

CLEVELAND--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Diversified industrial manufacturer Eaton Corporation today announced net income per share of $1.64 for the first quarter of 2008, an increase of 5 percent over net income per share of $1.56 in the first quarter of 2007. Sales in the quarter were $3.5 billion, 12 percent above the same period in 2007 and a record for the first quarter. Net income was $247 million, also a record for the first quarter.

“We anticipate net income per share for the second quarter of 2008 to be between $1.80 and $1.90. Operating earnings per share, which excludes charges to integrate our recent acquisitions, are expected to be between $1.90 and $2.00 in the second quarter of 2008. Due to the strong first quarter results, we are raising our full-year guidance by $.05 per share, to net income per share of $7.30 to $7.80 and operating earnings per share of $7.80 to $8.30.”

GWW, a supplier of facilities maintenance products, beat first quarter earnings estimates by 7 cents and guides higher for 2008.

"We are off to a strong start," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Richard L. Keyser. "We are encouraged by the market share gains achieved in a slowing economy. And because of our aggressive stock repurchase efforts in the first quarter, we are raising our forecasted earnings per share range to $5.80 to $6.10. This compares to our previously announced range of $5.65 to $6.00."

EIA weekly inventory data pops oil $2

2008-04-09T10:29:00.000-04:00

Actual:
Oil -3.2 million barrels
Gasoline -3.4 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 83.0%

Expected:
Oil +2.2 million barrels
Gasoline -2.3 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 83.2%

MIND beats by 5 cents, guides '09 above consensus

2008-04-08T16:05:00.003-04:00

Bill Mitcham, the Company's President and CEO, stated, "We are extremely pleased with our record fourth quarter and fiscal 2008 results. Our core equipment leasing business remained strong in fiscal 2008, increasing almost 38 percent over last fiscal year, while sales in our Seamap segment more than doubled from last year. In addition, due to strong customer demand, we acquired $26 million of new lease pool equipment during fiscal 2008, including $13 million in the fourth quarter. These additions, along with the $25.5 million of new equipment added in fiscal 2007, have helped us diversify and strengthen our world-wide market presence.

"We believe the seismic industry is currently experiencing a period of sustained growth as evidenced by strong projected spending by E&P companies over the next few years; increasing demand for seismic equipment; higher channel counts on land seismic surveys; a rapidly expanding marine market; and new, more challenging geographic regions of exploration. With over 70 percent of our revenues coming from outside of North America, we expect to benefit from faster seismic market growth in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Far East."Robert Capps, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, stated, "Regarding our outlook for fiscal 2009, we expect continued strength in our equipment leasing business. However, because we generated such exceptional revenue growth at Seamap during fiscal 2008, we don't expect Seamap's revenues to be up in fiscal 2009, but we do expect improved profit contributions from Seamap this coming year. Therefore, given our current pipeline of business and our fiscal 2009 outlook, we expect revenues to range between $78 million and $82 million, operating income to range between $18 million and $22 million, and earnings per share to range between $1.35 and $1.40 per diluted share."

Analysts were looking for $1.28 in fiscal 2009 on $74 million in revenues.

MSM reports 4-cent beat, guides next Q above estimates

2008-04-08T07:38:00.002-04:00

“We are very pleased with our financial performance in the fiscal 2008 second quarter, which reflects the effectiveness of our efforts to grow the business,” said Chuck Boehlke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. “We once again met or exceeded our financial targets, as we effectively executed our business model while continuing to make investments in our future growth. In addition, we generated excellent cash flows during the fiscal 2008 second quarter as we executed on our stated goal of reducing inventories to more normalized levels from those seen in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. We took advantage of the opportunity to buy our stock at attractive prices. We purchased approximately 2.5 million shares for $96.0 million in the quarter. We increased our maximum borrowing line under our revolving credit agreement to $150.0 million, a portion of which was used to finance the repurchase of these shares. Going forward we will continue to invest in MSC’s future growth and we expect cash flows to remain strong as we execute on our model.”

Mr. Sandler concluded, “As we enter the third quarter, our customers continue to face a number of issues, including rising raw material and transportation costs, and are seeking to reduce their MRO inventory levels in response, as is typical in a challenging economy. We have seen this cycle many times, and MSC’s financial strength, broad and deep product offerings, 99% fill rate and same day delivery capability allow us to continue to take share and grow in this environment as we effectively meet and support our customers’ needs. In short, we are ideally positioned to further enhance our position as a leader in the marketplace, and will benefit from our efforts even more strongly when the economy begins to recover.”

Based on current market factors, the Company expects net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 to be between $457 million and $463 million. The Company expects diluted earnings per share for the fiscal 2008 third quarter to be between $0.77 and $0.79. The Company also noted that there will be 64 business days in the third quarter of fiscal 2008 compared to 65 business days in the third quarter of fiscal 2007.

Analysts are looking for 75 cents in Q3.

LAYN beats by 12 cents on strength in mineral exploration

2008-04-08T07:36:00.001-04:00

``Fourth-quarter earnings, which marked the 16th consecutive quarter of favorable year-over-year comparisons, exceeded our expectations, driven primarily by an impressive 72.5% increase in income by the mineral exploration division. Positive momentum has carried over into fiscal 2009, with all three operating business units having solid backlogs or commitments going into the year. Another plus: the Company's cash position exceeds its debt. Our diversity in earnings and markets has served us well for four years. Our committed goal remains to consistently do better than the prior year.'' -- Andrew B. Schmitt, President and Chief Executive Officer

The week ahead: earnings reports

2008-04-07T07:33:00.001-04:00

Monday

AA $39.00 after hours
Analysts expect 48 cents on $7.18 billion 52wk Range: 26.69 - 48.77

Tuesday

LAYN $36.99 premarket
Analysts expect 38 cents on $215 million 52wk Range: 32.08 - 59.19

MSM $43.41 premarket
Analysts expect 69 cents on $433 million 52wk Range: 34.39 - 57.73

MIND $18.82 after hours
Analysts expect 27 cents on $17.3 million 52wk Range: 13.24 - 21.98

Wednesday

SGR $55.09 premarket
Analysts expect 54 cents on $1.7 billion 52wk Range: 29.02 - 77.30

CC $4.78 premarket
Analysts expect a loss of 6 cents on $3.84 billion 52wk Range: 3.44 - 19.12

PENX $22.65 premarket
Analysts expect 22 cents on $90.8 million 52wk Range: 18.20 - 41.30

Thursday

FCSX $27.73 premarket
Analysts expect 37 cents on $76.3 million 52wk Range: 18.39 - 53.25

Friday

FAST $47.89 premarket
Analysts expect 43 cents on $561.6 million 52wk Range: 32.27 - 52.94

Futures solid ahead of earnings season start

2008-04-07T06:12:00.002-04:00

Futures: S&P: +12.1 Dow: +89 Nas: +16.5
Fair val: S&P: +0.4 Dow: -2 Nas: +4.6

Positive gains in overseas markets and a possible deal to inject $5 billion of capital into troubled banker Washington Mutual (WM) are setting the tone ahead of 1st quarter earnings from Alcoa (AA).

AYI beats by 14 cents, sounds cautious tone

2008-04-03T08:45:00.001-04:00

Earned 82 cents vs. 68 cent estimates.

Vernon J. Nagel, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Acuity Brands said, "We are very pleased to report record quarter-over-quarter results from continuing operations for the 12th quarter in a row. Our strong second quarter performance reflects the benefits from programs implemented to create greater value for our customers, to invest in our associates to be more customer-focused and productive, and to more effectively deploy our assets to generate greater returns for our stakeholders.”

“Our backlog at the end of the second quarter was $163 million, down 2 percent versus the prior year; the decline was due primarily to improved cycle times, the timing of certain orders, and a reduction in late backlog. More importantly, incoming orders in March continued at a positive pace compared with the year ago period. To help offset a recent spike in various commodity prices, we recently announced a price increase ranging between 3 and 10 percent, effective early May. Also, we expect to realize benefits from our on-going initiatives to improve productivity and contain costs, including expected savings from efforts to streamline the organization announced in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. In addition, we continue to position the Company, by expanding our extensive product offerings and enhancing our service capabilities, to benefit from opportunities in the growing renovation and the lighting retrofit markets as businesses seek to reduce energy costs and improve aesthetics.

“Looking ahead to the second half of 2008 and beyond, we continue to see challenges as well as opportunities. While the United States economy is experiencing a slowdown resulting from the disruption in the housing and credit markets, it is impossible to predict the precise timing or impact on the growth rate of non-residential construction, the Company’s primary market. Several factors influence the future rate of growth of new construction in the non-residential market including: economic vitality, employment, commercial property values and rental rates, occupancy rates, the cost and availability of financing for new construction, the costs of building materials, and to a lesser degree the relative strength of the housing market. Concerns by building owners and developers regarding several of these factors, particularly current economic vitality, as well as availability of capital to fund projects, contributed to the decline in reported non-residential contract awards for February 2008, potentially a harbinger for decline in future commercial construction activity in certain sectors of the market. Although these concerns are worrisome, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury implemented a number of actions designed to boost investor and public confidence about the overall direction of the U.S. economy, including lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity in the financial markets. We expect these actions will have a positive influence on the longer-term trends for overall construction in North America.”

Weekly jobless claims surpass psychologically important 400k level

2008-04-03T08:33:00.004-04:00

Futures: S&P: -8.5 Dow: -54 Nas: -17.0
Fair val: S&P: -1.5 Dow: -13 Nas: -4.5

The last time claims were so high (407k) was the week of Sept. 17, 2005, at 425,000.
The four-week average of new claims last week increased by 15,750 to 374,500 from 358,750.
New jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 22 were revised upward to 369,000. Originally, claims for that week were reported at a seasonally adjusted 366,000.

By Jeff Bater, Dow Jones Newswires

WFR warns ahead of Q1

2008-04-03T07:17:00.003-04:00

Trouble at the solar bellwether could arrest the sector's recent rise

The company now anticipates revenue for the first quarter will be approximately $500 million with gross margin of approximately 52% and operating expenses of approximately $42 million. This compares to the company’s previously announced targets of $560 million in revenue with gross margin of approximately 54.8% and operating expenses of approximately $42 million.

“It is unfortunate that issues with our new unit prevented us from taking advantage of available market opportunities; however we were able to limit the impact to approximately 10% of our targeted revenue in spite of the utilization being 20% lower than fourth quarter levels,” stated Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Although our anticipated revenue is between the levels of the 2007 third and fourth quarters, we are pleased that our cost reductions and product mix enabled us to keep margins between the third and fourth quarter levels as well, in spite of sequential price reductions in the mid-to-high single digit percentage range and a significant reduction in spot polysilicon sales volume compared to the fourth quarter. The reduction in spot polysilicon sales was intended to minimize disruptions to our wafer customers.”

Analysts were looking for $559 million in revenues for Q1.

Solar on fire

2008-04-03T06:57:00.008-04:00

VIX volatility index

2008-04-03T06:43:00.007-04:00

The VIX has retreated to a critical trend line.

Spikes in the VIX "fear" index correspond to dips in the S&P 500.

Stronger dollar pushes Asia higher

2008-04-03T06:31:00.002-04:00

Futures: S&P: -3.9 Dow: -29 Nas: -3.2
Fair val: S&P: -1.5 Dow: -13 Nas: -4.5

The Nikkei and Hang Seng gained 1.5% as the dollar approached 103 yen.

Cherry Blossoms

2008-04-02T19:21:00.004-04:00

It was freaking cold on Sunday, but that didn't deter your intrepid blogger and his better half from traipsing along the National Mall and soaking up the cherry blossoms at their peak.

RIMM beats by 2 cents on $1.88 billion, guides next Q above consensus

2008-04-02T16:11:00.002-04:00

Approximately 2.18 million net new BlackBerry® subscriber accounts were added in the quarter. At the end of the quarter, the total BlackBerry subscriber account base was over 14 million.

"We are pleased to report another year of very strong growth with shipments of approximately 14 million BlackBerry smartphones and total revenue of $6 billion. Heightened retail activities helped drive exceptional subscriber growth during the fourth quarter with net subscriber account additions growing more than 32% over the previous quarter and well over 2 million net subscriber accounts added in a single quarter for the first time," said Jim Balsillie, Co-CEO at Research In Motion. "Looking forward, the prospects for RIM and the industry are more exciting than ever and we will continue to work closely with a thriving ecosystem of partners to build on our momentum during the year ahead."

Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 ending May 31, 2008 is expected to be in the range of $2.23-$2.30 billion. Net subscriber account additions in the first quarter are expected to be approximately 2.2 million. Earnings per share for the first quarter are expected to be in the range of $0.82-$0.86 per share diluted.

Shares are 3% higher after hours.

EIA weekly inventories bullish for refiners

2008-04-02T10:32:00.002-04:00

Actual:
Oil +7.3 million barrels
Gasoline -4.5 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 82.4%

Expected:
Oil +2.3 million barrels
Gasoline -2.0 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 82.7%

Watching CALM

2008-04-02T10:17:00.004-04:00

CALM has given up a lot of ground since announcing solid earnings.
The stock has attracted a lot of shorts, who will be on the hook for 80 cents/share in dividend payments at the end of the month.

It's making a little bit of a stand right now @ $29.50.

Scottrade continues to irritate

2008-04-02T08:32:00.005-04:00

The clowns at Scottrade just cannot keep it together.
Yesterday it was impossible to trade until 15 minutes after the open. NO premarket.
And now today accounts are completely inaccessible.

Unfortunately, we are unable to complete your request at this time. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

Well at least they're sorry.
The really sad thing is that these problems aren't new.
This has happened two other times recently.
Expect a massive exodus.
And look at those who stand to gain as a possible play (TRAD, OXPS, etc.), the discount brokers have been beaten down anyway.

Which broker do you use?
Who would you recommend?

Futures improve on benign ADP employment report, BBY results

2008-04-02T08:19:00.002-04:00

Futures: S&P: +5.8 Dow: +63 Nas: +8.8
Fair val: S&P: +1.4 Dow: +26 Nas: +6.7

Private sector employment for March came in better than expected (8k gain vs. 65k loss).

MON beats by 7 cents, guides full-year EPS in line with estimates

2008-04-02T08:10:00.004-04:00

Predicts $3.15-$3.25 on an on-going basis for 2008 vs. $3.20 estimates.

Shares are little changed in the premarket.

Comment from Monsanto Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Hugh Grant:

"The performance of our seeds and traits business has us on track for another exceptional year and well positioned to support our five-year strategic growth plan. Between now and 2012, we are the only agriculture company that can point to consistent growth irrespective of commodity price swings, fluctuations in planted acres or the popularity of ethanol. Over the next five years we're poised to set the bar higher as we deliver a game changing platform every other year, real products that create real value for the farmer and for our shareowners."

BBY beats by 6 cents, guides 2008 within consensus

2008-04-02T08:04:00.004-04:00

Earned $1.71 vs. $1.65 estimates.
Guides for 2008 EPS $3.25-$3.40 vs. $3.31 consensus, citing strong second half expectations.

Shares are over 7% higher in early extended trading.

Jim Muehlbauer, enterprise CFO (interim), said, “We delivered solid results and grew our market share in a volatile year. As we consider the macro-economic pressures on the consumer and evaluate the industry business trends, we believe it is prudent to plan for a soft consumer environment in the near-term. Given the current environment, we expect that growth in the second half of the year will more than offset modest declines in the first half. We are focusing our investments to quicken our progress in transforming the customer experience in key opportunity areas—like in Best Buy Mobile and in our international segment. We believe our plans strike the right balance of continuing to invest for future growth while still delivering earnings growth in the short-term.”

Futures nearly flat following yesterday's huge gains

2008-04-02T07:43:00.002-04:00

Futures: S&P: +0.2 Dow: +23 Nas: +5.2
Fair val: S&P: +1.4 Dow: +26 Nas: +6.7

Markets overseas followed through overnight on yesterday's party in the U.S., led by the Nikkei which gained over 4%.
Earnings from BBY and MON will be released this morning, and RIMM results will come after the close.

LULU beats by 2 cents on higher than expected revenues, guides 2008 in line

2008-04-02T07:36:00.003-04:00

Earned 21 cents vs. 19 cents expected on $105.1 million vs. $92.7 expected.

Robert Meers, lululemon’s CEO stated: “We are extremely pleased with the accelerated growth of our fourth quarter results. We believe that the strong momentum generated in 2007 puts us in great standing for 2008. The Company will continue to deliver innovative performance apparel, a distinctive store experience, and a community-based marketing approach, focusing on U.S. expansion.” Mr. Meers continued: “While the current overall consumer environment may be challenging, the increasing loyalty of our guests and our unique positioning in the historically resilient active and healthy-lifestyle market, are providing for continued acceptance of our brand.”

There are nearly 10 million shares of LULU shorted.

Markets rally hard to start the new quarter

2008-04-01T21:07:00.002-04:00

S&P: +47.5 Dow: +391 Nas: +83.7

Markets gapped higher on the open on positive capital-raising news from UBS and LEH and never looked back. Sentiment was bolstered by solid gains in the dollar against the yen and euro, and a concomitant pullback in gold and oil. Financials, homebuilders and real estate excelled.

UYG +12.7%
URE +10.5%
XHB +8.0%
FXI +7.5%
XLF +7.0%

The mood on the street seems almost ebulient. Here's some encouraging technical analysis from AlphaTrends:

MRK, SGP getting hammered on Vytorin/Zetia efficacy data

2008-03-31T07:47:00.002-04:00

New England Journal of Medicine study concluded that while Vytorin reduces cholesterol, it does not reduce the risk of heart disease.

"You've just seen a negative trial that should change practice, especially the way we in this country have prescribed" the drugs, Yale University cardiologist Harlan Krumholz told thousands of cardiologists. He urged doctors to go "back to statins," the class of cholesterol-lowering drugs that includes Lipitor and Zocor. Major studies have demonstrated their ability to save lives and prevent heart attacks.

Shares of MRK are down over 10% in extended trading.
SGP is poised to open 20% lower.

The week ahead: economic data, earnings reports

2008-03-31T07:40:00.001-04:00

Monday

Chicago PMI

FUL $21.29 after hours
Analysts (6) expect 33 cents on $333 million 52wk Range: 17.02 - 31.53

Tuesday

ISM Index
March auto sales

Wednesday

Weekly oil/gas inventories

MON $114.30 premarket
Analysts (14) expect $1.72 on $3.6 billion 52wk Range: 53.95 - 129.28

BBY $40.56 premarket
Analysts (24) expect $1.65 on $13.2 billion 52wk Range: 38.75 - 53.90

RIMM $115.34 after hours
Analysts (32) expect 70 cents on $1.85 billion 52wk Range: 42.93 - 137.01

Thursday

Weekly jobless claims

AYI $42.88 premarket
Analysts (3) expect 68 cents on $470 million 52wk Range: 34.04 - 66.89

MTRX $17.36 premarket
Analysts (5) expect 28 cents on $192.6 million 52wk Range: 15.81 - 30.36

Friday

March employment

MOS $105.40 premarket
Analysts (8) expect 95 cents on $1.92 billion 52wk Range: 25.95 - 119.78

FDO $19.12 premarket
Analysts (17) expect 42 cents on $1.84 billion 52wk Range: 14.62 - 35.42

AZZ $36.38 premarket
Analysts (2) expect 59 cents on $89 million 52wk Range: 20.35 - 41.58

U.S. futures lack direction following weak Asian action

2008-03-31T07:06:00.002-04:00

Futures: S&P: -1.9 Dow: -29 Nas: +2.0
Fair val: S&P: -1.9 Dow: -19 Nas: -3.4

Markets in Japan, China and India gave up 2%, 3% and 4% respectively, while European indices are mostly flat.

CALM posts $2.41 EPS for Q3 on $278 million in revenues

2008-03-31T06:59:00.002-04:00

Fred Adams, chairman and chief executive officer of Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., stated, “We are very pleased with the strong results for the third quarter of fiscal 2008, reflecting record high egg prices. All of our operations ran smoothly, and we were able to take full advantage of the favorable economics in our industry. Demand was strong for eggs in both the retail and food service segments and demand was also good for shell eggs used to produce liquid, frozen, and dried egg products. Even with the higher prices, eggs still represent a good value to the consumer compared with other foods. Egg demand for the Easter holiday was also strong. The egg industry had a good inventory clean-up, and we are off to a solid start for our final quarter of the year.

“Feed costs continue to be very high and volatile with no relief in sight. U.S.D.A. statistics and egg industry projections are for egg production to be similar to 2007 levels in the year ahead.”

Adams added, “The quarter ended March 1, 2008, will be the first quarter that the Company’s new dividend policy will be in effect. The record date will be sixty days following the end of the third quarter. The response to our new dividend policy has been positive.”

CALM's dividend policy mandates a 33% payout of quarterly earnings per share.

Futures positive, Asian markets strong overnight

2008-03-28T05:48:00.003-04:00

Futures: S&P: +8.1 Dow: +73 Nas: +13.25
Fair val: S&P: -2.2 Dow: -15 Nas: -4.6

The Shanghai Composite was up 5% and the Hang Seng gained nearly 3% with the dollar back over 100 yen. European markets are slightly higher.

CNBC reports CBOT raises margin requirements on corn, soy

2008-03-27T08:48:00.001-04:00

The move could take some speculative froth out of grain prices.
DBA

Upgrades: HAL, VLO, PTEN, BJS, SRE, KLAC, FORM, ASML; Downgrades: MOT, STX, CPKI, AUY, WSO, QLGC

2008-03-27T08:20:00.000-04:00

Lehman Brothers lowered price targets on GOOG, RECN, BAC and others

SOLF earnings in line on higher revenues, issues outlook

2008-03-27T08:10:00.001-04:00

BUSINESS OUTLOOK

FIRST QUARTER 2008

Based on current operating trends and other conditions, Solarfun is providing first quarter 2008 and full year 2008 guidance as follows:

* Although the first quarter is not yet concluded, management believes that shipments for 1Q08 will continue to improve. Volumes are expected to be at least 35 MW. ASP’s should remain strong and relatively constant.

* The Company was affected by the winter weather in China in February and continues to be affected by the relatively tight supply and increasing costs of polysilicon. Therefore, management would expect these factors to have some downward pressure on gross margins for the first quarter of 2008.

FULL YEAR 2008

* Based on existing sales and pricing, contracted supply agreements, and other expected business and industry conditions, management provided the following guidance for the full year 2008: The Company has sales contracts totaling over 160 MW (a level that is over double last year’s 78.4MW) and expects prices to be flat or slightly higher from the $3.74 recorded for the full year 2007. Solarfun has secured supply of polysilicon on a contracted basis slightly exceeding its contracted sales volume.

* Capacity will increase from 240 MW to 360 MW by mid-year 2008.

* Management has seen a continued tightness of polysilicon supply and escalating prices on the spot market. With these conditions expected to exist throughout most or all of 2008, management believes some continued negative impact on gross margins from the level achieved in 2007.

CEO Harold Hoskens concluded, “2008 is a mix of opportunities and challenges. We believe Solarfun is well-positioned to continue to gain market share, expand scale, improve our manufacturing efficiencies, penetrate new markets, and develop and expand our supply chain in both China and elsewhere. Our management team, Board of Directors, and key shareholders are determined and committed to building shareholder value over the long term “

CAG reports 22 cent Q4 beat, guides 2008 above consensus

2008-03-27T07:56:00.003-04:00

Earned 63 cents vs. 41 cent estimate.
Divesting Trading and Merchandising segment.

-- The company expects fiscal 2008 EPS to be in the range of $1.80-$1.85, excluding items impacting comparability. Given that the Trading & Merchandising transaction is expected to be completed over the next few months, Trading & Merchandising results likely will be classified as discontinued operations in future financial statements.

Truck drivers’ strike on April 1 picks up speed

2008-03-27T07:36:00.004-04:00

By Barb Ickes | Thursday, March 27, 2008

It evidently took a few days to sink in. When my story from last week about plans for a truckers’ strike appeared Monday on the high-traffic Drudge Report Web site, the calls and e-mails poured in. The potential impact of this thing is tremendous, and people are beginning to notice.

The call for a drivers’ shutdown started small — with an owner/operator who hauls cattle in Missouri. The trucker, Dan Little, posted his plans to shut down on his Web site, and someone brought it to our attention at the Times.

Now it’s been brought to the attention of thousands, and Little’s plan to park his rig, beginning April 1, has truckers lining up across the nation to join him.

Several non-truckers wanted to know how they could help the drivers, and some people said they would park their passenger vehicles in a show of solidarity.

A clear majority of the people I heard from were sympathetic to the drivers. They said that they understand it is increasingly difficult — impossible, in many cases — to continue to operate a trucking business when most or all of the profits are going into fuel.

Here are just a few readers’ comments:
“I’m all for capitalism and free trade, but not reckless profiteering by oil
companies.”
“Everyone should call in sick April 1.”
“(The drivers) should park for a week or two and see if Congress and the president come up with any ideas when there’s no bread on the shelves.”
“Are the rich having some sort of contest to see just how much they can squeeze from each and every one of us?”
“I just drive a pick-up, but on April 1, I won’t use it.”
“Shut ’er down!”

But not all readers were sympathetic to truckers. Several called the plans for a shutdown “irresponsible.” Others pointed out that everyone, not just truckers, is paying the high fuel costs. A few said that truckers who aren’t making it are failing because they’re lousy business people.

But those in the driver’s seat — independent drivers like Dan Little — are further frustrated by the naysayers who he says don’t seem to understand how badly the pump prices are hurting them.

For instance, Little pointed out, our $50 fill-ups may seem intolerably high to many of us, but consider what it’s costing him: more than $1,200 to fill his truck, which then gets about 5 miles to the gallon.

Other truck-driving critics say it’s time to shut down the trucking industry, anyway. They say that trucking is a poor way to transport goods, and America should rely instead on railroads.

Little would like to know how that might happen.
“Where is this magic set of railroad tracks, leading to every grocery store and Wal-Mart in the country?” he asked. “Even if you could ship everything on the rail system we have, which would be impossible, how does it move from there?”

Little has said that the last thing he wants to do is hurt the country that he loves. Truck drivers are some patriotic folks, he pointed out. But many feel backed into a corner by the threat of bankruptcy. “All I know is that I have to take a stand,” he said. “My livelihood is at stake.”

As I was finishing this column, Betty Cornette called from Louisville, Ky., and said that her truck-driving brother has had to call it quits because of fuel and insurance costs.
She made this prediction: “Everybody’s going to have to suffer before they understand what’s happening to these truckers.”

Barb Ickes can be contacted at (563) 383-2316 or bickes@qctimes.com.

HURN warns ahead of Q1

2008-03-27T07:13:00.001-04:00

Based on preliminary financial data for the quarter to date and subject to the final closing of the Company’s books and review of first quarter results by the Company’s independent auditors, Huron expects first quarter 2008 revenues before reimbursable expenses to be in a range of $138 million to $140 million, which is lower than previously provided guidance of $142 million to $147 million. The Company anticipates diluted earnings per share in a range of $0.50 to $0.57, which is lower than previously provided guidance of $0.66 to $0.70. The shortfalls in revenues and EPS are primarily attributable to continuing weakness in the Company’s Financial Consulting segment.

“While we are disappointed in the results of our Financial Consulting segment in the first quarter, we remain optimistic that this segment will regain momentum. The continuing turmoil in the financial markets should translate into an increasing level of investigations and litigation over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Gary E. Holdren, chairman and chief executive officer, Huron Consulting Group. Huron’s Financial Consulting segment represented 31% of the Company’s revenues in 2007.

DSW misses by 4 cents, cautious on coming year

2008-03-27T07:08:00.001-04:00

Given the current economic uncertainty, at this time the Company will not provide full-year guidance for 2008. For the first half of 2008, comparable store sales are anticipated to be negative and earnings per diluted share are anticipated to be significantly below the $0.68 per diluted share reported for the first half of last year. The Company maintains its plans to open at least 30 DSW stores during the year and to launch its online business, DSW.com.

CONN beats by 6 cents, guides fiscal 2009 above consensus

2008-03-27T07:05:00.002-04:00

Earns 57 cents vs. 51 cent estimate, guides for $1.85-$1.95 for the upcoming year.

“It is very satisfying to deliver earnings in the middle of the range we set at the beginning of the year, excluding the fair value changes, especially considering the challenging conditions in the retail marketplace we experienced this year,” said Thomas J. Frank, Sr., the Company’s Chairman and CEO. “Though our credit portfolio statistics do not yet reflect all of the improvements we have made in our collection performance, I expect to see continued improvement over the next couple of quarters.”

Today's earnings reports

2008-03-27T06:46:00.003-04:00

DSW $17.55 premarket
Analysts (11) expect 6 cents on $334 million 52wk Range: 14.72 - 44.05

SOLF $11.46 premarket
Analysts (2) expect $1.49 on $772 million 52wk Range: 8.22 - 40.19

UTIW $16.23 premarket
Analysts (10) expect 19 cents on $1.1 billion 52wk Range: 15.59 - 30.14

ACN $35.36 after hours
Analysts (19) expect 56 cents on $5.59 billion 52wk Range: 31.91 - 44.03

XRTX $18.45 after hours
Analysts (10) expect 1 cent on $215.5 million 52wk Range: 13.34 - 24.75

RHT $18.05 after hours
Analysts (15) expect 19 cents on $141 million 52wk Range: 16.53 - 25.25

SPEC $8.96 after hours
Analyst (1) expects 16 cents on $32 million 52wk Range: 8.47 - 18.00

VCC $4.40 after hours
Analyst (1) expects revenues of $23.1 million 52wk Range: 4.00 - 8.43

U.S. futures mixed, dollar stable, oil higher

2008-03-27T05:55:00.002-04:00

Futures: S&P: +6.8 Dow: +87 Nas: +10.8
Fair val: S&P: +7.5 Dow: +43 Nas: +16.5

European markets are an average of 1% higher, Asian markets were mixed.
An attack on one of Iraq's main oil pipelines has oil $1 higher this morning.
Over one million barrels of crude a day flows through the pipeline, which will be out of commission for at least three days.

NYC Bear Stearns protest: "Not Wall Street, MAIN Street"

2008-03-26T23:22:00.001-04:00

RBN beats by 3 cents on higher than expected revenues, increases 2008 guidance

2008-03-26T17:16:00.003-04:00

"Market conditions remain favorable in our key end markets with notable sales growth in global energy and chemical sectors," said Peter C. Wallace, President and Chief Executive Officer of Robbins & Myers, Inc. "We continue to improve our capabilities to meet rising customer demand, not only by making targeted investments in capital and people, but also through greater integration of our operations and process improvements associated with our lean enterprise initiatives. These improved capabilities are also helping to improve our profitability and cash flow."

The Company announced that it is increasing its full year 2008 DEPS guidance from $1.78-$1.88 to $1.82-$1.92. The Company also established third quarter 2008 DEPS guidance of $0.42-$0.47, as compared with actual results of $0.39 in the third quarter of 2007. On March 31, 2008, the escrow period related to the Company's fiscal 2006 sale of certain product lines will conclude, as will certain contingency obligations, which could result in a one-time benefit to third quarter 2008 earnings and cash flow. The Company's guidance excludes any potential impact from this matter.

Analysts expect 47 cents next quarter.

PAYX earnings in line, sounds cautious tone on economy

2008-03-26T16:26:00.001-04:00

“Third quarter results met our expectations and we expect to achieve our eighteenth consecutive year of record revenue and net income for fiscal 2008,” commented Jonathan J. Judge, President and Chief Executive Officer of Paychex. “Our operating income, net of certain items, was very strong for the third quarter, increasing 17% over the same period last year. However, we are seeing signs of a weakening economy indicated by a more difficult than normal third quarter selling season and increases in business failures. On a positive note, checks per client have not yet shown significant weakness.”

RECN beats by 10 cents

2008-03-26T16:22:00.000-04:00

Non-GAAP EPS = 29 cents, GAAP = 19 cents

"In spite of the recent extraordinary events affecting the world's financial markets, we continue to focus on executing our business strategy, including serving our clients and growing our revenues," said Don Murray, chairman and chief executive officer of Resources.

Net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") for the third quarter ended February 29, 2008, was $8.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, including non-cash stock-based compensation expense of $4.8 million net of tax. This compares with GAAP net income for the third quarter ended February 28, 2007, of $13.1 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, including non-cash stock-based compensation expense of $4.0 million net of tax.

Non-GAAP net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 (which excludes stock-based compensation expense and the related income tax expense) was $13.5 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, compared to $17.1 million, or $0.33 per diluted share, in the prior year quarter.

ORCL EPS in line on lower than expected revenues

2008-03-26T16:05:00.001-04:00

Shares are down nearly 10% after hours

"Oracle delivered another quarter of strong financial results and earnings growth. In Q3, we once again exceeded our non-GAAP EPS growth target of 20%," said Oracle President and CFO, Safra Catz. "For the first three quarters of this year we have grown our operating cash flow 55%, 3 times faster than at this point in the past five years."