Weekly EIA data

Actual:
Oil +3.8 million barrels
Gasoline -1.5 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 85.4%

Expected:
Oil +500k barrels
Gasoline -800k barrels
Capacity utilization: 85.9%

The Week Ahead: Selected Earnings Reports

Monday
BEAV premarket
HUM premarket
SOHU premarket
TGE premarket
FLS after hours
MTW after hours
TITN after hours
UCTT after hours
V after hours

Tuesday

BNI premarket
BYD premarket
GLW premarketMA premarket
MAG premarket
UA premarket
VLO premarket
ALGN after hours
BWLD after hours
KTCC after hours

Wednesday

CMI premarket
FSLR premarket
GRMN premarket
NOV premarket
AMKR after hours
DVR after hours
OII after hours
TRN after hours
Thursday

ATRO premarket
PDE premarket
PMTI premarket
PTEN premarket
RAIL premarket
BOOM after hours
CHK after hours
MNST after hours
WLT after hours

Friday

AGU premarket
ICE premarket

Cartoon Theme O' the Week: Food Prices

POT crushes Q1 estimates, significantly raises 2008 guidance

The company earned $1.74 per share versus consensus of $1.52.
Earnings guidance for full-year 2008 was steeply hiked up from $6.25-$7.25 per share to $9.50-$10.50 per share. Analysts currently expect $8.62 for 2008.
For the second quarter POT expects to earn $2.20-$2.50 versus $2.27 consensus.
"Another record quarter for our company reflects the ongoing growth in global demand for food and the fertilizers that are essential to maximizing crop production," said PotashCorp President and Chief Executive Officer Bill Doyle. "This is especially true of potash, where we have unmatched assets that continue to elevate our performance. In this environment, we are demonstrating the increasing value of our company - as an essential part of the solution to concerns about the world's food supply."

"The global need to increase food production is real and immediate, and it will be a part of our world for the foreseeable future," said Doyle. "It took nearly a decade to empty the global grain cupboard and we can't refill it overnight. The good news is that the world is more than capable of producing enough food, but improved farming and fertilization practices will be required. With our unique ability to incrementally raise our potash production to meet world demand over the next several years, we look forward to helping farmers increase food production as we deliver continued growth for our shareholders."

IPI pulled back yesterday following its stellar debut on Tuesday. It could be off to the races again today on both the strength of POT's earnings and the saturating media coverage of the global food crunch.

Despite recent data, gasoline stocks still 7% above last year's level

Refiners have operated at highly reduced run rates the past month to try to work off supply overhang ahead of the summer driving season.

With the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack spread still struggling to hold the lower teens, industry-wide attempts to boost margins could be a case of too little too late.

Oil stocks are still below levels of a year ago. And momentum in crude futures is so overwhelming that any data point, negative or positive, within the petroleum complex can and does get spun into a bullish scenario.

So oil continues higher and refining margins stay compressed. Even though gasoline at the pump is crossing $4/gallon in some areas of the country, refiners' share of the pie is only one-third of last year's take.

Weekly EIA data: Bigger build in crude, bigger draw in gasoline

Actual:
Oil +2.4 million barrels
Gasoline -3.2 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 85.6%

Expected:
Oil +1.1 million barrels
Gasoline -2.1 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 82.1%

Large-cap Chinese energy companies worth a look

With shares of American energy companies like APA(nat gas), ACI(coal), and XOM(oil) hitting new 52-week highs on an almost daily basis, it's worth looking abroad for underperformers in the sector
Chinese firms PTR and SNP have come well down off their highs in conjunction with the Shanghai Composite, which at 3147 is roughly 50% off of its October highs over 6000. But they're starting to define a bottom ahead of the major index.

Shanghai made a bit of a stand last night to close in positive territory after dipping below the 3000 mark intraday(night).


SNP sports a P/E below 11, and @ $100/share is 45% below its 52-week high over $178.


The chart for PTR looks the same, as shares have retreated 48% since October.
PTR is now trading at a P/E under 12.


Much has been made about P/E ratios on the exchange, but when China's GDP growth rate is factored into calculations, the Shanghai Composite is valued equitably relative to the exchanges of other countries. This chart is from November.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) begins trading today

The highly anticipated IPO priced 30 million shares yesterday @ $32, above expectations of $29. The company is the American analog to Potash (POT), the Canadian fertilizer company that never pulls back. With a $66 billion market cap, POT is now second only to RIMM ($71 billion) in size among Canadian stocks.

This IPO has all the feel of the Visa (V) IPO last month, which is up 25% since its debut. Just as Mastercard (MA) dominated the market for demand in credit card transaction firms, shares of POT and Mosaic (MOS) have benefited from a dearth of publicly traded fertilizer companies. And IPI is the purest play of the three on potash. Wannabe investors on the sidelines who have been shaking their heads every time POT hits a new high have their chance to get in on the ground floor of a similar company.

POT’s awe-inspiring chart. The recent hyperbolic move equals a gain of 45% since March 20.



An increase in supply in fertilizer issues doesn't necessarily have to decrease demand for existing stocks. MA has continued to climb higher since V started trading.



Odds are that IPI will open much higher than $32. It might be tough to stomach "paying up" for it @ $45, but how many people passed at paying $100 for POT six months ago?

Weekly EIA data: Unexpected drawdown in oil, bigger draw in gasoline

Actual:
Oil -2.3 million barrels
Gasoline -5.5 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 81.4%

Expected:
Oil +1.7 million barrels
Gasoline -1.7 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 83.7%

Build your vocabulary and feed the hungry

International riots over soaring food costs spurred President Bush to authorize $200 million in emergency aid today.  World Bank President Robert Zoellick says rice prices have risen globally by about 75% in just the past two months, "with more likely to come."  

So what's a well-nourished, cubicled American to do?

An ingenious website let's you feel like you're doing something while it helps you build your vocabulary.  For every word you get right, 20 grains of rice are donated through the UN World Food Program to end world hunger.  See if you can beat level 46!

Solar ETF TAN debuted today

The Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol TAN, is designed to track approximately 25 companies within the following business segments of the solar power industry: equipment producers, suppliers of materials or services, installation, integration or finance, and companies that specialize in selling electricity.

McCain proposes summer gas tax holiday

To help people weather the downturn immediately, McCain urged Congress to institute a "gas-tax holiday" by suspending the 18.4 cent federal gas tax and 24.4 cent diesel tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day. He also renewed his call for the United States to stop adding to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and thus lessen to some extent the worldwide demand for oil. 

Wall Street Journal parody draws ire of Murdochs, real and imagined

The Huffington Post says the real Rupert Murdoch isn't too pleased, having attempted to buy up all available copies.

Writers from the Daily Show, Saturday Night Live, and the Onion joined Andy Borowitz, Richard Belzer and others to create the special edition, including the ads.

Fake Murdoch lets his minions have it.

ETN, GWW beat estimates, raise forecasts

ETN, manufacturer of electrical and power components, beat by 4 cents and raises 2008 guidance.

CLEVELAND--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Diversified industrial manufacturer Eaton Corporation today announced net income per share of $1.64 for the first quarter of 2008, an increase of 5 percent over net income per share of $1.56 in the first quarter of 2007. Sales in the quarter were $3.5 billion, 12 percent above the same period in 2007 and a record for the first quarter. Net income was $247 million, also a record for the first quarter.

“We anticipate net income per share for the second quarter of 2008 to be between $1.80 and $1.90. Operating earnings per share, which excludes charges to integrate our recent acquisitions, are expected to be between $1.90 and $2.00 in the second quarter of 2008. Due to the strong first quarter results, we are raising our full-year guidance by $.05 per share, to net income per share of $7.30 to $7.80 and operating earnings per share of $7.80 to $8.30.”

GWW, a supplier of facilities maintenance products, beat first quarter earnings estimates by 7 cents and guides higher for 2008.

"We are off to a strong start," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Richard L. Keyser. "We are encouraged by the market share gains achieved in a slowing economy. And because of our aggressive stock repurchase efforts in the first quarter, we are raising our forecasted earnings per share range to $5.80 to $6.10. This compares to our previously announced range of $5.65 to $6.00."

EIA weekly inventory data pops oil $2

Actual:
Oil -3.2 million barrels
Gasoline -3.4 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 83.0%

Expected:
Oil +2.2 million barrels
Gasoline -2.3 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 83.2%

MIND beats by 5 cents, guides '09 above consensus

Bill Mitcham, the Company's President and CEO, stated, "We are extremely pleased with our record fourth quarter and fiscal 2008 results. Our core equipment leasing business remained strong in fiscal 2008, increasing almost 38 percent over last fiscal year, while sales in our Seamap segment more than doubled from last year. In addition, due to strong customer demand, we acquired $26 million of new lease pool equipment during fiscal 2008, including $13 million in the fourth quarter. These additions, along with the $25.5 million of new equipment added in fiscal 2007, have helped us diversify and strengthen our world-wide market presence.

"We believe the seismic industry is currently experiencing a period of sustained growth as evidenced by strong projected spending by E&P companies over the next few years; increasing demand for seismic equipment; higher channel counts on land seismic surveys; a rapidly expanding marine market; and new, more challenging geographic regions of exploration. With over 70 percent of our revenues coming from outside of North America, we expect to benefit from faster seismic market growth in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Far East."Robert Capps, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, stated, "Regarding our outlook for fiscal 2009, we expect continued strength in our equipment leasing business. However, because we generated such exceptional revenue growth at Seamap during fiscal 2008, we don't expect Seamap's revenues to be up in fiscal 2009, but we do expect improved profit contributions from Seamap this coming year. Therefore, given our current pipeline of business and our fiscal 2009 outlook, we expect revenues to range between $78 million and $82 million, operating income to range between $18 million and $22 million, and earnings per share to range between $1.35 and $1.40 per diluted share."

Analysts were looking for $1.28 in fiscal 2009 on $74 million in revenues.

MSM reports 4-cent beat, guides next Q above estimates

“We are very pleased with our financial performance in the fiscal 2008 second quarter, which reflects the effectiveness of our efforts to grow the business,” said Chuck Boehlke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. “We once again met or exceeded our financial targets, as we effectively executed our business model while continuing to make investments in our future growth. In addition, we generated excellent cash flows during the fiscal 2008 second quarter as we executed on our stated goal of reducing inventories to more normalized levels from those seen in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. We took advantage of the opportunity to buy our stock at attractive prices. We purchased approximately 2.5 million shares for $96.0 million in the quarter. We increased our maximum borrowing line under our revolving credit agreement to $150.0 million, a portion of which was used to finance the repurchase of these shares. Going forward we will continue to invest in MSC’s future growth and we expect cash flows to remain strong as we execute on our model.”

Mr. Sandler concluded, “As we enter the third quarter, our customers continue to face a number of issues, including rising raw material and transportation costs, and are seeking to reduce their MRO inventory levels in response, as is typical in a challenging economy. We have seen this cycle many times, and MSC’s financial strength, broad and deep product offerings, 99% fill rate and same day delivery capability allow us to continue to take share and grow in this environment as we effectively meet and support our customers’ needs. In short, we are ideally positioned to further enhance our position as a leader in the marketplace, and will benefit from our efforts even more strongly when the economy begins to recover.”

Based on current market factors, the Company expects net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 to be between $457 million and $463 million. The Company expects diluted earnings per share for the fiscal 2008 third quarter to be between $0.77 and $0.79. The Company also noted that there will be 64 business days in the third quarter of fiscal 2008 compared to 65 business days in the third quarter of fiscal 2007.

Analysts are looking for 75 cents in Q3.

LAYN beats by 12 cents on strength in mineral exploration

``Fourth-quarter earnings, which marked the 16th consecutive quarter of favorable year-over-year comparisons, exceeded our expectations, driven primarily by an impressive 72.5% increase in income by the mineral exploration division. Positive momentum has carried over into fiscal 2009, with all three operating business units having solid backlogs or commitments going into the year. Another plus: the Company's cash position exceeds its debt. Our diversity in earnings and markets has served us well for four years. Our committed goal remains to consistently do better than the prior year.'' -- Andrew B. Schmitt, President and Chief Executive Officer

The week ahead: earnings reports

Monday

AA $39.00 after hours
Analysts expect 48 cents on $7.18 billion 52wk Range: 26.69 - 48.77

Tuesday

LAYN $36.99 premarket
Analysts expect 38 cents on $215 million 52wk Range: 32.08 - 59.19

MSM $43.41 premarket
Analysts expect 69 cents on $433 million 52wk Range: 34.39 - 57.73

MIND $18.82 after hours
Analysts expect 27 cents on $17.3 million 52wk Range: 13.24 - 21.98

Wednesday

SGR $55.09 premarket
Analysts expect 54 cents on $1.7 billion 52wk Range: 29.02 - 77.30

CC $4.78 premarket
Analysts expect a loss of 6 cents on $3.84 billion 52wk Range: 3.44 - 19.12

PENX $22.65 premarket
Analysts expect 22 cents on $90.8 million 52wk Range: 18.20 - 41.30

Thursday

FCSX $27.73 premarket
Analysts expect 37 cents on $76.3 million 52wk Range: 18.39 - 53.25

Friday

FAST $47.89 premarket
Analysts expect 43 cents on $561.6 million 52wk Range: 32.27 - 52.94

Futures solid ahead of earnings season start

Futures: S&P: +12.1 Dow: +89 Nas: +16.5
Fair val: S&P: +0.4 Dow: -2 Nas: +4.6

Positive gains in overseas markets and a possible deal to inject $5 billion of capital into troubled banker Washington Mutual (WM) are setting the tone ahead of 1st quarter earnings from Alcoa (AA).

AYI beats by 14 cents, sounds cautious tone

Earned 82 cents vs. 68 cent estimates.

Vernon J. Nagel, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Acuity Brands said, "We are very pleased to report record quarter-over-quarter results from continuing operations for the 12th quarter in a row. Our strong second quarter performance reflects the benefits from programs implemented to create greater value for our customers, to invest in our associates to be more customer-focused and productive, and to more effectively deploy our assets to generate greater returns for our stakeholders.”

“Our backlog at the end of the second quarter was $163 million, down 2 percent versus the prior year; the decline was due primarily to improved cycle times, the timing of certain orders, and a reduction in late backlog. More importantly, incoming orders in March continued at a positive pace compared with the year ago period. To help offset a recent spike in various commodity prices, we recently announced a price increase ranging between 3 and 10 percent, effective early May. Also, we expect to realize benefits from our on-going initiatives to improve productivity and contain costs, including expected savings from efforts to streamline the organization announced in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. In addition, we continue to position the Company, by expanding our extensive product offerings and enhancing our service capabilities, to benefit from opportunities in the growing renovation and the lighting retrofit markets as businesses seek to reduce energy costs and improve aesthetics.

“Looking ahead to the second half of 2008 and beyond, we continue to see challenges as well as opportunities. While the United States economy is experiencing a slowdown resulting from the disruption in the housing and credit markets, it is impossible to predict the precise timing or impact on the growth rate of non-residential construction, the Company’s primary market. Several factors influence the future rate of growth of new construction in the non-residential market including: economic vitality, employment, commercial property values and rental rates, occupancy rates, the cost and availability of financing for new construction, the costs of building materials, and to a lesser degree the relative strength of the housing market. Concerns by building owners and developers regarding several of these factors, particularly current economic vitality, as well as availability of capital to fund projects, contributed to the decline in reported non-residential contract awards for February 2008, potentially a harbinger for decline in future commercial construction activity in certain sectors of the market. Although these concerns are worrisome, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury implemented a number of actions designed to boost investor and public confidence about the overall direction of the U.S. economy, including lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity in the financial markets. We expect these actions will have a positive influence on the longer-term trends for overall construction in North America.”

Weekly jobless claims surpass psychologically important 400k level

Futures: S&P: -8.5 Dow: -54 Nas: -17.0
Fair val: S&P: -1.5 Dow: -13 Nas: -4.5

The last time claims were so high (407k) was the week of Sept. 17, 2005, at 425,000.
The four-week average of new claims last week increased by 15,750 to 374,500 from 358,750.
New jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 22 were revised upward to 369,000. Originally, claims for that week were reported at a seasonally adjusted 366,000.

By Jeff Bater, Dow Jones Newswires

WFR warns ahead of Q1

Trouble at the solar bellwether could arrest the sector's recent rise

The company now anticipates revenue for the first quarter will be approximately $500 million with gross margin of approximately 52% and operating expenses of approximately $42 million. This compares to the company’s previously announced targets of $560 million in revenue with gross margin of approximately 54.8% and operating expenses of approximately $42 million.

“It is unfortunate that issues with our new unit prevented us from taking advantage of available market opportunities; however we were able to limit the impact to approximately 10% of our targeted revenue in spite of the utilization being 20% lower than fourth quarter levels,” stated Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Although our anticipated revenue is between the levels of the 2007 third and fourth quarters, we are pleased that our cost reductions and product mix enabled us to keep margins between the third and fourth quarter levels as well, in spite of sequential price reductions in the mid-to-high single digit percentage range and a significant reduction in spot polysilicon sales volume compared to the fourth quarter. The reduction in spot polysilicon sales was intended to minimize disruptions to our wafer customers.”

Analysts were looking for $559 million in revenues for Q1.

Solar on fire

VIX volatility index

The VIX has retreated to a critical trend line.

Spikes in the VIX "fear" index correspond to dips in the S&P 500.

Stronger dollar pushes Asia higher

Futures: S&P: -3.9 Dow: -29 Nas: -3.2
Fair val: S&P: -1.5 Dow: -13 Nas: -4.5

The Nikkei and Hang Seng gained 1.5% as the dollar approached 103 yen.

Cherry Blossoms

It was freaking cold on Sunday, but that didn't deter your intrepid blogger and his better half from traipsing along the National Mall and soaking up the cherry blossoms at their peak.

RIMM beats by 2 cents on $1.88 billion, guides next Q above consensus

Approximately 2.18 million net new BlackBerry® subscriber accounts were added in the quarter. At the end of the quarter, the total BlackBerry subscriber account base was over 14 million.

"We are pleased to report another year of very strong growth with shipments of approximately 14 million BlackBerry smartphones and total revenue of $6 billion. Heightened retail activities helped drive exceptional subscriber growth during the fourth quarter with net subscriber account additions growing more than 32% over the previous quarter and well over 2 million net subscriber accounts added in a single quarter for the first time," said Jim Balsillie, Co-CEO at Research In Motion. "Looking forward, the prospects for RIM and the industry are more exciting than ever and we will continue to work closely with a thriving ecosystem of partners to build on our momentum during the year ahead."

Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 ending May 31, 2008 is expected to be in the range of $2.23-$2.30 billion. Net subscriber account additions in the first quarter are expected to be approximately 2.2 million. Earnings per share for the first quarter are expected to be in the range of $0.82-$0.86 per share diluted.

Shares are 3% higher after hours.

EIA weekly inventories bullish for refiners

Actual:
Oil +7.3 million barrels
Gasoline -4.5 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 82.4%

Expected:
Oil +2.3 million barrels
Gasoline -2.0 million barrels
Capacity utilization: 82.7%

Watching CALM

CALM has given up a lot of ground since announcing solid earnings.
The stock has attracted a lot of shorts, who will be on the hook for 80 cents/share in dividend payments at the end of the month.



It's making a little bit of a stand right now @ $29.50.

Scottrade continues to irritate

The clowns at Scottrade just cannot keep it together.
Yesterday it was impossible to trade until 15 minutes after the open. NO premarket.
And now today accounts are completely inaccessible.

Unfortunately, we are unable to complete your request at this time. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

Well at least they're sorry.
The really sad thing is that these problems aren't new.
This has happened two other times recently.
Expect a massive exodus.
And look at those who stand to gain as a possible play (TRAD, OXPS, etc.), the discount brokers have been beaten down anyway.

Which broker do you use?
Who would you recommend?

Futures improve on benign ADP employment report, BBY results

Futures: S&P: +5.8 Dow: +63 Nas: +8.8
Fair val: S&P: +1.4 Dow: +26 Nas: +6.7

Private sector employment for March came in better than expected (8k gain vs. 65k loss).

MON beats by 7 cents, guides full-year EPS in line with estimates

Predicts $3.15-$3.25 on an on-going basis for 2008 vs. $3.20 estimates.

Shares are little changed in the premarket.

Comment from Monsanto Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Hugh Grant:

"The performance of our seeds and traits business has us on track for another exceptional year and well positioned to support our five-year strategic growth plan. Between now and 2012, we are the only agriculture company that can point to consistent growth irrespective of commodity price swings, fluctuations in planted acres or the popularity of ethanol. Over the next five years we're poised to set the bar higher as we deliver a game changing platform every other year, real products that create real value for the farmer and for our shareowners."

BBY beats by 6 cents, guides 2008 within consensus

Earned $1.71 vs. $1.65 estimates.
Guides for 2008 EPS $3.25-$3.40 vs. $3.31 consensus, citing strong second half expectations.

Shares are over 7% higher in early extended trading.

Jim Muehlbauer, enterprise CFO (interim), said, “We delivered solid results and grew our market share in a volatile year. As we consider the macro-economic pressures on the consumer and evaluate the industry business trends, we believe it is prudent to plan for a soft consumer environment in the near-term. Given the current environment, we expect that growth in the second half of the year will more than offset modest declines in the first half. We are focusing our investments to quicken our progress in transforming the customer experience in key opportunity areas—like in Best Buy Mobile and in our international segment. We believe our plans strike the right balance of continuing to invest for future growth while still delivering earnings growth in the short-term.”

Futures nearly flat following yesterday's huge gains

Futures: S&P: +0.2 Dow: +23 Nas: +5.2
Fair val: S&P: +1.4 Dow: +26 Nas: +6.7

Markets overseas followed through overnight on yesterday's party in the U.S., led by the Nikkei which gained over 4%.
Earnings from BBY and MON will be released this morning, and RIMM results will come after the close.

LULU beats by 2 cents on higher than expected revenues, guides 2008 in line

Earned 21 cents vs. 19 cents expected on $105.1 million vs. $92.7 expected.

Robert Meers, lululemon’s CEO stated: “We are extremely pleased with the accelerated growth of our fourth quarter results. We believe that the strong momentum generated in 2007 puts us in great standing for 2008. The Company will continue to deliver innovative performance apparel, a distinctive store experience, and a community-based marketing approach, focusing on U.S. expansion.” Mr. Meers continued: “While the current overall consumer environment may be challenging, the increasing loyalty of our guests and our unique positioning in the historically resilient active and healthy-lifestyle market, are providing for continued acceptance of our brand.”

There are nearly 10 million shares of LULU shorted.